Introduction

In 2022, a transportation analytics company, INRIX, performed a comprehensive review of worldwide traffic and its impacts. Washington DC was ranked the 8th most congested city in the United States, and the 20th most congested city worldwide. They estimate that the average driver in DC loses 83 hours per year due to congestion. The overall impact of congestion on the economy was estimated to be $1398 dollars per driver in 2022, with the total economic loss being 4.1 billion annually. Commuting still hasn’t reached the pre pandemic levels, meaning that these numbers are woefully under-representing the true problem of congestion. Going back to 2019, it was estimated that DC drivers lost 155 hours due to congestion.

In addition to the economic impacts, traffic also has harmful effects on the environment. It is estimated by Our Transportation Future, A DC transportation organization, that 40% of all carbon emissions in the district come from transportation. Additionally, according to the EPA 27% of all greenhouse gas emissions nationwide can be attributed to the transportation industry. Traffic congestion is clearly a problem in the district however it shows no signs of slowing down.

It is obvious that in order to reduce traffic congestion, there need to be safe, reliable alternative options to commuting via car. In Washington DC, commuters have many alternative options such as: Metro, Bus, Bike, Street Car, or even on foot. The city has made it a priority to invest in these alternatives to incentivize choosing a mode of transportation besides the car. Many steps that need to be taken are obvious. For example the Metro needs to run on time and frequently for commuters to see it as a viable option. The basic solution here is investment in more trains and operators. The bus system also needs to be able to meet this expectation. Its biggest barriers being shortages, but also traffic. Implementing bus only lanes and better enforcement of illegal parking in those lanes is a good start. For cycling, the clear solution to increasing ridership is building a cohesive network of fully protected and separated bike lanes with infrastructure that makes people feel safe. Investment in E-Bikes could also possibly help. There are many options for the city and a mix of all of them is ideal. To best invest in the future of transportation, we need to better understand the ridership of these different forms of transportation, along with estimating where the demand for alternative transportation will lie in the future. Using Metro, Bus, and Capital Bikeshare ridership data we will be able to perform time series analysis and forecasting to better understand the current and future needs of the city.

Questions that will be answered in this project include:

  1. How have the trends of Metro ridership changed over time
  2. How have the trend of Bus ridership changed over time
  3. How have the trends of Bikeshare users changed over time
  4. When are the highest usage days for Bikeshare
  5. What are the seasonal trends of Metro, Bus, and Bikeshare usage
  6. Can future ridership of each mode of transporation be forecasted using only previous ridership data
  7. Can weather data predict ridership of bikeshare
  8. Can ridership of Bus, Metro, and Bikeshare predict future ridership for each other
  9. What is the impact of Covid-19 on these ridership numbers
  10. LYFT operates capital bikeshare, how has their stock price performed recently

Citations:

Inrix. “Scorecard-City-2022.” Inrix, https://inrix.com/scorecard-city-2022/?city=Washington+DC.

“About Washington D.C.” Our Transportation Future, https://www.ourtransportationfuture.org/about_dc.

“Traffic Congestion Cost the US Economy Nearly $87 Billion in 2018.” World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/traffic-congestion-cost-the-us-economy-nearly-87-billion-in-2018/.

EPA, Environmental Protection Agency, https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions.